THE GROCERY PRICE INDEX

Explainer

Why do produce prices change so much?

Produce is perishable, seasonal and weather-sensitive, so prices can move sharply from one month to the next.

  • 1 min read
  • Updated May 2026
  • BLS-based
Quick answer

Fresh produce has more short-term supply risk than shelf-stable staples.

Lettuce moved +20.6% in May 2026, showing how quickly produce can shift even when the full basket moves less.

+20.6% Lettuce MoM

Why produce is volatile

Fresh produce depends on the timing and quality of harvests. Weather can reduce supply quickly, disease can damage crops, and highly perishable items cannot always be stored long enough to smooth a bad month. Transport and import conditions matter too, especially for fruit and vegetables that move long distances before reaching stores.

What the current data shows

Basket Report tracks tomatoes, potatoes, lettuce, bananas, oranges and lemons as produce staples. In May 2026, lettuce had the largest month-over-month produce move at +20.6%, while tomatoes had the largest year-over-year produce move at +46.0%.

How to read the average

These are U.S. city average prices, not a guarantee for every store. Produce can vary especially widely by region, season, variety and promotion, so the national average is best read as a trend signal rather than a shelf quote.

Illustration related to why do produce prices change so much?

Frequently asked questions

Which produce item moved most this month?

Lettuce had the largest produce move in Basket Report for May 2026, changing +20.6% from the prior month.

Are produce prices the same everywhere?

No. Basket Report uses national U.S. city average prices; local store prices vary by region, season, variety and promotion.

Why does lettuce or tomatoes jump so much?

Fresh vegetables are perishable and weather-sensitive, so a supply disruption or seasonal transition can move average prices quickly.

Sources and methodology

Reviewed May 2026 · Source data is independently analyzed by Basket Report and does not imply BLS endorsement.

See produce item prices

Compare tomatoes, potatoes, lettuce, bananas, oranges and lemons in the price directory.

See all item prices