Lower inflation is slower price growth, not a reset.
The basket is −2.2% over the past year. The basket is 39.1% higher than the 2019 average. Read both comparisons to distinguish the current rate from the longer-run price level.
Inflation rate versus price level
The inflation rate tells you how quickly prices are changing over a period. The price level tells you what the item or basket costs. A lower positive inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly. A negative rate means prices fell over the measured period, but that decline need not erase earlier increases.
Disinflation versus deflation
Disinflation means inflation has slowed. Deflation means prices are actually falling. Grocery shoppers often hear that inflation has cooled and expect old prices, but the Basket Index shows why that expectation can be wrong: the annual change is −2.2% for September 2026, while the nominal comparison is +39.1% versus the 2019 average.
How to read Basket Report
Basket Report publishes both the current dollar level and the monthly or yearly percentage change. The dollar level answers "what does it cost now?" The percent change answers "how fast is it moving?" Both are needed to understand grocery costs.
Frequently asked questions
What is disinflation?
Disinflation means inflation is slowing. Prices can still be rising during disinflation; they are just rising at a slower rate.
What is deflation?
Deflation means prices are falling. For grocery prices, that would require the actual dollar price level to decline, not merely a lower inflation rate.
Are grocery prices falling now?
The Basket Index is +0.2% month over month and −2.2% year over year in September 2026. Some individual items are falling while others are rising.
Sources and methodology
- BLS Consumer Price Index FAQ
- BLS common misconceptions about the CPI
- BLS average retail food and energy prices
- Basket Report methodology
- Basket Report data downloads
Data through September 2026 · Editorial prose reviewed for September 2026 · Source data is independently analyzed by Basket Report and does not imply BLS endorsement.
Track the price level directly
The Basket Index shows the current dollar total and the rate of change side by side.